Analyzing Peak Retail Shipping Volumes in 2023 versus 2024: A Tale of Two Seasons
How did fluctuations in shipping volumes during the peak retail seasons of 2023 and 2024 impact the transportation and logistics industry?
This analysis of year-over-year data breaks down the key trends and implications for industry stakeholders.
Pre-pandemic shipping patterns returned in 2023 due to cautious consumer spending, financial uncertainties, and inflationary pressures. However, the downturn was soon outflanked by robust growth at the end of 2024.
Inflation persisted, but higher-income shoppers opened their wallets. The growth in sales was concentrated among the three biggest retailers – Costco, Walmart, and Amazon, whose total retail share in 2024 was 17%, accounting for roughly 57% of retail sales growth in the country over the past three quarters.1
The 2023 holiday shipping season deviated sharply from historical norms, reflecting a freight market with weak demand and unseasonably low volumes. Closing out 2024 and entering the new year, the industry is riding a wave of improved economic indicators and consumer confidence from a surge in spending and shipping.
The 2023 Landscape: A Return to Normal
The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the shift towards e-commerce, but by 2023, consumers had returned to in-store shopping. This slowed the rapid growth of e-commerce, but this was not the only reason holiday shipping deviated from historical norms.
When the peak season of 2023 arrived, the freight market was still reeling from expanding shipping capacity in the pandemic boom years and lacked a pronounced peak.
Signs of stagnation emerged as early as late summer, with only modest increases in freight activity during July and August. By September, rates and volumes began to cool, leading to speculation that peak season was early and short-lived. Truckload carriers, in particular, faced lower-than-expected rates and underutilized capacity.
Despite overall freight volumes softening, the growth in e-commerce continued upward with notable trendlines that included:
● Online holiday sales rose 4.9%, reaching $221.1 billion in November and December.2
● Mobile shopping crossed a critical threshold, accounting for 51.1% of online sales—a significant jump from 47% in 2022.3
The 2024 Resurgence: Breaking Records Amid Constraints
In contrast, 2024 was a markedly different picture. Several factors contributed to increased shipping volumes and market dynamics. One was last year’s holiday season’s compressed timeline of 17 business days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. It was three days shorter than the previous five years’ average.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, total retail sales increased by 3.8% from November 1 to December 24, surpassing forecasts and the previous year’s 3.1% growth. During the peak season, carriers were expected to deliver approximately 85 million packages daily, and the compressed timeframe resulted in greater demand for faster delivery options.4
Carriers responded with aggressive capacity expansion and operational adjustments:
● USPS scaled up to process 60 million packages daily during peak weeks.5
● Major parcel carriers implemented peak surcharges to offset costs and balance demand.
● Staffing gaps in sorting and delivery networks continued to pose challenges, prompting investments in automation and temporary workforce solutions.6
Impact on Trucking and Logistics
The surge in holiday shopping in 2024 significantly affected shipping capacity and pricing. For example, DAT Freight and Analytics noted an 82% increase in the ratio of loads to trucks (dry van) in December, year over year, up more than 59% from November.
However, the load increase had a marginal impact on freight rates. Year over year, pricing rose 0.5% in December, reflecting an excess capacity freight market.
DAT’s national spot rate index for vans from November to December showed:
● Rates went to $2.11 per mile (including fuel surcharges) in December, an 8-cent increase from the previous month.
● Spot rates rose to $2.18 per mile during the first week of January 2025, continuing their upward trend into the new year.
Regional and Sector-Specific Impacts
Overall, the National Retail Federation estimates a 14.3% increase in cargo imports at the nation’s ports in December 2024, year over year. Motor carriers with port drayage operations increased substantially as retailers built inventory for the peak shopping season.
Through the first 11 months of 2024, North American intermodal volume was up 7.4% year over year, with a 9.1% increase in the United States.7
The reefer market, crucial for temperature-sensitive holiday goods, also saw tightening capacity in domestic supply chains. According to DAT, reefer spot rates increased by $0.03 per mile in November to $2.48 in December and hit $2.57 in January.
E-commerce’s Growing Influence
The National Retail Federation’s data showed increased consumer participation in 2024, with 183.4 million shoppers during Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, surpassing 2023’s record.8
The last five days of the holiday season accounted for 10% of all holiday spending, indicating a more evenly distributed shopping pattern rather than a last-minute rush. Due to the shorter shipping season, more in-store purchases were expected in 2024, with 45% of consumers planning to make them, up 2% from 2023.9
The contrast between 2023 and 2024 was particularly evident in e-commerce shipping volumes. In 2024, U.S. holiday retail e-commerce sales reached a record-breaking $271.58 billion, a 9.5% increase from the previous year. In-store sales grew more modestly, at 2.9%.10
This growth significantly impacted shipping volumes and delivery networks for online and in-store fulfillment. The trend also contributed to a changing landscape for physical retailers. According to data firm Coresight Research, retailers announced about 1,400 more store closures than openings in 2024, reversing a two-year trend of net openings.
Home retailers were among the biggest drivers of the contraction, with companies such as Big Lots and Conn’s filing for bankruptcy and announcing plans to close hundreds of locations.
Industry Adaptation and Strategy
The contrasting experiences of 2023 and 2024 forced the shipping industry to adapt its strategies. In 2023, carriers did not see much of a peak season due to excess capacity in the market.
In contrast, carriers had to quickly adjust capacity in 2024 to align with demand in a more balanced market. Whereas 2023’s overcapacity led to rate suppression and market imbalances, 2024 saw carriers adjust pricing upwards.
The stark differences, year over year, between the peak shipping seasons provide valuable insights. For example, even with the compressed shopping timeline in 2024 and record-breaking e-commerce volumes, the transportation and logistics industry was well-equipped to handle more demand.
However, as consumer shopping patterns continue to evolve, the challenges of balancing capacity with demand will become more complex and will likely influence shipping strategies for years to come. For instance, rising online sales and mobile transactions accelerate the shift toward faster, more flexible delivery models.
The contrasting patterns of 2023 and 2024 highlight one undeniable truth—success hinges on balancing agility with scalability in the face of shifting market conditions. Flexible capacity strategies, data-driven forecasting, and investments in automation will be central to sustaining performance during peak seasons.
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To your success,
Andy Hedrick – CEO